The Most Villainous, Breakneck Route, chapter 4: Brutal at Best

The forecast is for sun and the weekend crowds will show up in the usual places, so we agree to head to our usual, unusual trailhead at the base of the Cog Railroad.

Gorham Mountaineer, 1905

Norman Libby of Bridgton, Maine is on record as the first to ski from the top of Mt. Washington and he started his trip up the mountain at the base of the Cog, not Pinkham Notch, the present-day approach to the mountain's eastern snowfields and ravines. On Feb. 16, 1905, Mr. Libby climbed from the base station, presumably alongside the tracks, and slid down the same way. Having no climbing skins, he used skis bound with rope and guided himself along with a single pole. A hundred years later there are sometimes parades of skiers “climbing the cog”, but with this season’s scant snowfall, down 40% from normal, that will not be the case today.

Along the drive, I notice all the south-facing aspects in Crawford Notch are bare to the ridgeline, 2500’ above us. No snow. The drop from up there is astonishing. On a ridge hike up there last December, I noticed the top of one of the Webster slides had filled in with snow quite nicely. A little bushwhack gave me a dizzying, top-down look into the gully and I added it to my spring dance card.

Now it’s the third week of March, almost spring. temperatures on the summit of Mt. Washington have surpassed record highs by at least ten degrees five out of the last seven days. Daily averages have been 13-34 deg. above the thirty year norm, and today the N. Conway golf course, all eighteen holes, opened five weeks ahead of schedule. What is going on? This refreshing quote from MWOBS meteorologist Ryan Knapp says it best:
      “A ridge of high pressure is causing this abnormally nice weather, and it's a great time to be on the mountain. When I was a kid, we would get momentary warm periods like this and people would usually just go with it and enjoy it. Who knows how this relates to the long term climate trend, global warming or climate change?”

We have a beautiful weather forecast and half-a-dozen reports on the snow. We’ll have to reconcile the urgency that this may be our last shot at Oakes Gulf/Monroe Brook with circumstances suggesting the game may already be over. One on-line opinion from the Time For Tuckerman webpage users forum summarily dissed our plan for the day this way:
        “…the Westside access will be brutal at best for up and down, and not nearly as easy as the Eastside.”
   
Normally, skiing hazards like waterfalls, cliff bands, exposed streams, and downed trees are buried this time of year. Today we are hoping for the best and prepared for the worst. Monroe Brook gully is our exit plan for the end of the day. It’s north-facing and in the shadows for most of the day and our best shot at finding snow.  That said, it’s also too dangerous to climb without crampons in the morning before it’s had a chance to thaw out. There will be no recon of this place this morning so at the end of the day we’ll be approaching it from above, unseen.
      “This might be a wild goose chase”, said Phil.
      “I’m leaving it up to you guys”, said Rick.

chapter 5, Saint Patrick's Day