 |
| Westside, 1984 |
Pulling off a successful trip is like solving a jigsaw puzzle. Some are more challenging than others, but through it all you have a method; keep track of all the pieces, and keep going until you finish the puzzle. Hopefully the process is fun and rewarding.
I remember in May of 1991 our community closely watched the puzzle come together for that year’s New England Everest Expedition lead by Rick Wilcox. Rick is a popular, local business owner, international mountaineer, and all-round good guy who successfully led his summit team of four to the top of Everest via the South East Ridge. Everyone on the expedition made it back safely. Quite an achievement, considering that up to that time, one out of every three climbers who got to the top of Mt Everest had died coming back down. Compared to an Everest expedition, an outing like ours is a walk in the park, but not one without risk.
A recipe for a fun time today is a combination of certainty and assumptions, and a healthy measure of risk. What is certain: a seven-o-clock sunset, an accessible trailhead, no food or shelter on the mountain, and thankfully, no insects. Each one of us can make strong assumptions about our technical skills and equipment. Assumptions about our physical disposition tend to be less stable. We interpret information from weather and avalanche reports, on-line chatter from the local backcountry ski forum, and recollections from hundreds of outings, thousands of hours on the mountain. Our fundamental approach is to make sure our desire for a good time does not work against our better judgment. As our day unfolds, the stability of our assumptions is constantly tested and adjustments will be made; actions taken.
Keith Baxter is a risk management consultant in the business world and fancies himself a bit of a mountaineer. Mr. Baxter writes about risk in his blog “De-Risk, Thoughts of Risk Management in the Wider World”. Another guy who knows a little bit about risk management is Chris Bonington from the U.K., one of the world’s truly great mountaineers. Bonington is perhaps best known for his successful 1975 expedition to climb the Southwest Face of Everest, considered the most difficult route up the world’s highest peak.
A few years ago, Bonington and Baxter crossed paths. It may have been at a book signing or a Bonington-as-keynote speaker affair. The risk consultant grabbed an opportunity to ask the celebrity this question:
“So when you are planning an expedition, how do you identify the risks?”
The answer surprised Baxter.
“I try not to think about the risks”, said Bonington.
A statement like that begs an explanation, so Bonington elaborates.
“When you are climbing a new route on a mountain like Everest, if you spend too much time thinking about the risks, you would never get out of the tent at Base Camp! You have to stay focused on your objectives and your plans and stay positive. Risks are only relevant in their context, and need to be kept specific and in perspective”.
For a minute think about a risk scenario common to all of us. Slim chance a front tire will blow when you’re out on the highway doing seventy, or a jammed control will launch you and your car through the wall of the 7-Eleven when you pull in for your morning paper. Taken out of context, these driving scenarios are terrifying. In the context of safe, everyday driving, it would be distracting and counterproductive to think about irrelevant threats like these.
When you jump into a car and head down the road, you benefit from a risk management algorithm that has already been worked out for you. Posted speed limits, traffic lights, rumble strips, and the stripes on the highway all prompt you to take specific actions that help you manage the risks of driving. You watch for warnings and red flags and you have the training and experience to take appropriate actions to counter each specific threat. Your approach is casual, if not enjoyable, and you reach your destination safely every time. Our jobs, livelihoods, and the well-being of our families depend on driving and we learn to balance the risks with the benefits the automobile provides.
The risk of dying in a car wreck today is one tenth of what it was on the terra incognita of American roads in 1920; not even close to the risk Bonington and Wilcox had to manage on their mountaineering expeditions. Institutionalized as it is, our way of risk management on modern roadways usually works.
As for little outdoor adventures like today's, what might an armchair mountaineer, an ineffectual dreamer like me, learn from fellows like Bonington, Wilcox, and Keith Baxter? In a way it’s no bigger deal than walking into a car dealership. Be aware of your vulnerability, maximize your information before you go, and don’t let emotion rule your decisions. Know all the variables that add up to the riskiness of your venture. Research them. List them.
The Variables
1. threats2. your vulnerability to those threats
3. countermeasures you can take to decrease threats and vulnerability
4. the impact of something going wrong
Once your feet are on the ground, stay mindful of changes in those variables. Be sure the assumptions you’ve made about the variables stay true. Likely they won’t.
Know when to listen to your inner voice. Tiny slices of information you receive in the blink of an eye may send a signal about a threat that your conscious filter might have missed; the mythical Trojan Horse. This rapid cognition comes from risk management algorithms that are grooved into our brains from a lifetime of accumulated facts and experiences. In other words, sometimes you have to go with your gut.
Hoopa, my old boss from Wildcat who now runs the Alta Ski School, has one of the best feels for snow of anyone I’ve ever skied with. Since he left New England over thirty years ago, he’s had to lighten his touch even more to ski Alta’s legendary steep and deep. As he says, “When the snow starts talking to you, it’s time to get off it before something breaks loose.”
chapter 3: The Approach
No comments:
Post a Comment